The new energy heavy truck market is getting hotter and hotter. Data shows that in November 2021, a total of 1,852 new energy heavy trucks were sold in China, a year-on-year increase of 668%, and the monthly sales record has been refreshed again for three consecutive months. Looking at the annual data, as of November 2021, the cumulative sales volume of new energy heavy trucks was 7,442, a year-on-year increase of 222%.
There is no doubt that under the guidance of the "dual carbon" strategy, new energy commercial vehicles have entered the "fast lane" of development, and upstream and downstream enterprises are expected to usher in new opportunities for development.
Under the "Double Carbon" goal, the new energy of heavy trucks is the general trend
In order to implement the "dual carbon" policy, on October 24, the State Council issued the "Carbon Peak Action Plan before 2030". According to the plan, the state will vigorously promote the low-carbon transformation of transportation tools and equipment, vigorously promote heavy-duty freight vehicles powered by electricity, hydrogen fuel, and liquefied natural gas, and build a green and efficient transportation system.
Under the guidance of the plan, road transport carbon reduction has become a key link. According to statistics, the number of commercial vehicles in China only accounts for 10.9% of the total car ownership, but it produces 56% of the carbon emissions from road traffic. As new energy has become an irreversible development trend in the world, heavy truck OEMs must speed up their layout, improve power efficiency, and contribute to the "dual carbon" goal.
The market generally believes that 2021 is the "Year of Revolution for Commercial Vehicles". During the year, the phase-out of heavy trucks with the National III standard will be accelerated, the National V standard will be restricted, and the National VI standard will be accelerated. Recently, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China, the National Development and Reform Commission and other 12 central departments and 7 provinces and cities jointly issued the "2021-2022 Autumn and Winter Air Pollution Comprehensive Control Plan", aiming to completely eliminate the national three standard heavy trucks within this year. This environmental governance work will eliminate about 300,000 national triple trucks, and part of the released market share will flow to new energy heavy trucks.
It is reported that new energy heavy trucks have significant advantages in application scenarios such as medium and short-distance transportation, engineering construction or urban traffic, with lower fuel consumption and cost. At the same time, high-energy-consuming enterprises are under pressure to reduce carbon emissions and meet environmental protection requirements. The factory has carbon emission indicators in every link, so the use of zero-emission new energy heavy trucks has become the best choice.
At present, the number of heavy trucks in the Chinese market exceeds 8.5 million, while the number of electric heavy trucks has just exceeded 12,000. Assuming that 20% of the current traditional heavy trucks can be replaced by new energy heavy trucks, the number of new energy heavy trucks in the country will reach 1.7 million. The field of new energy electric heavy trucks has a huge growth potential of more than 100 times.
The OEM market structure will be restructured
After passenger cars, the electrification and intelligence of heavy trucks have entered a stage of rapid development, especially electric heavy trucks have become the core factor driving the growth of new energy heavy trucks. Judging from the market data in 2021, the sales ranking of the electric heavy-duty truck market has subverted the inherent competition pattern formed by the traditional heavy-duty truck market for many years, which has also become an important variable in the future heavy-duty truck market pattern.
At present, the industrial chain of pure electric heavy trucks has been perfected, the cost of batteries has been greatly reduced, the supporting system has become more complete, and there are no technical obstacles to the promotion of new energy heavy trucks. In this context, OEMs have begun to actively embrace new energy technologies to further adapt to market demands. From the announcement of 6 batches of new energy heavy trucks issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in the second half of this year, it can be seen that the number of new energy heavy trucks shows a trend of increasing batch by batch. China National Heavy Duty Truck, FAW Jiefang, Foton Motor, SAIC and other companies have a variety of new energy heavy truck models listed.
Judging from the current layout, China National Heavy Duty Truck has completed the technical reserve of new energy heavy trucks, and the core layout and vehicle integration development have been completed; SAIC Hongyan has accelerated the promotion and application of new energy heavy trucks, and the replacement heavy trucks have been continuously delivered for use; CIMC Vehicles This year, Lingyu Automobile and FAW Jiefang comprehensively promoted the key project of "oil-to-electricity" and successfully jointly developed pure electric cement mixer trucks. Today, Lingyu Automobile has released 3 pure electric concrete mixer trucks, and Xi'an CIMC's new energy city muck truck is also on the road of "new energy".
Many bus companies are also actively participating in the new energy heavy truck industry. For example, Zhengzhou Yutong has continuously launched new energy heavy truck models, Kaiwo Automobile has launched hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks, and Foton Motor has launched lightweight smart heavy trucks.
New energy has provided new opportunities for OEMs to tell stories and overtake in curves, and the silent heavy truck market is expected to continue to gain market attention and expectations. With the improvement of new energy-related technologies, it has become an irreversible and inevitable trend for new energy commercial vehicles with green, environmental protection and intelligent technologies as the core to replace traditional fuel vehicles, and domestic OEMs will usher in new opportunities and challenges.
New energy commercial vehicles put forward higher requirements for upstream and downstream supply chain enterprises
In order to accelerate the implementation of new energy for commercial vehicles, in addition to OEMs, many upstream and downstream parts suppliers of commercial vehicles, special-purpose vehicle top-loading and semi-trailer companies also need to actively adapt to the new energy trend. In the transformation of the new energy commercial vehicle industry Seize the market and contribute.
Under the current national standards, the weight of a diesel heavy truck with a driving specification of 8X4 shall not exceed 16 tons. If reference is made to the current weight limit standards, electric heavy trucks will inevitably reduce the carrying capacity of the truck due to the increased weight of the battery system, and the payload of the whole vehicle will be reduced by 2-3 tons, which will reduce the efficiency of truck transportation and increase operating costs. Therefore, lightweighting has become a key solution, and major car companies are actively deploying lightweighting.
Taking CIMC Vehicles as an example, it has reserved a number of core technologies in lightweighting and has become a leader in lightweighting in the industry. The weight of a new generation of stainless steel liquid tank semi-trailer produced by its subsidiary Ruijiang Tanker broke the industry's lightest record. At the same time, CIMC Vehicles is also actively cooperating with Baowu Iron and Steel Group to produce special steel, and continues to explore the lightweight field.
In addition to light weight, new energy heavy trucks also put forward higher requirements for the joint research and development depth and adaptability of the body and OEMs. Leading enterprises in the industry have natural advantages and are very easy to build an industrial moat. For example, CIMC Vehicles has actively launched the "joint development" strategy with OEMs. The joint development strategy can enable OEMs to obtain stable and high-quality tops and production of special-purpose vehicle tops. Manufacturers, on the other hand, can lock in sales to a large extent, gaining advantages that other companies cannot match. According to public reports, CIMC Vehicles has carried out in-depth cooperation in the field of new energy with OEMs such as Sinotruk, Dongfeng, and FAW Jiefang by virtue of its scale and technological advantages.
2021 is the first year for the development of new energy heavy trucks. With the further enrichment of application scenarios and the gradual expansion of the market development space, new energy heavy trucks will continue to grow rapidly. Some analysts pointed out that following the "hurricane" in 2021, the new energy heavy truck market is expected to continue to rise in 2022, and the forecast demand may reach about 50,000; 20% or more.
As for the new energy light truck market, it is also developing rapidly. With the outbreak of online economies such as community group buying, fresh food e-commerce, express logistics, etc., the process of urban-rural integration has been accelerated, and the demand for urban distribution has been further magnified. The issuance of the "14th Five-Year Plan for Cold Chain Logistics Development" has directly promoted the development of intelligent new energy light trucks. In the research and development of new energy light vans, CIMC Vehicles has formulated three digital upgrade projects, including the adaptation application of new energy coolers, the research and development of intelligent interconnection modules, and the research and development of van body product modules, to promote the high level of China's logistics industry. Quality development.
In the future, China's commercial vehicle new energy market will gradually enter a strategic stalemate stage with comprehensive capabilities such as endurance, ecology, and industrial chain as the core of competition, and will have research and development. Relevant enterprises with strength and competitive advantage are expected to fully benefit.
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