Entering the second half of the year, the heavy-duty truck market has seen a slight decline in activity. According to preliminary data from First Commercial Vehicle Network, in August 2026, wholesale sales of heavy-duty trucks in my country reached approximately 83,000 units, a slight decrease of about 1% compared to July and a year-on-year decrease of about 9.4%. This marks the third year-on-year decline in heavy-duty truck sales this year, and the first time there have been two consecutive months of year-on-year decline. From January to August, cumulative sales of heavy-duty trucks reached approximately 828,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 16%, with the cumulative growth rate further slowing.
[Chart showing monthly sales trends of heavy-duty trucks in my country, 2020-2026 (unit: vehicles)]
◆ Domestic market enters traditional off-season, sales decline
From a market rhythm perspective, July and August are traditionally the off-season for heavy-duty truck sales.
With the arrival of summer, increased high temperatures, typhoons, and heavy rainfall have affected construction projects and logistics transportation, weakening end-user demand. At the same time, the high base of the heavy-duty truck market in the same period last year (driven by the replacement of old National IV emission standard trucks) further amplified the year-on-year decline in August this year.
2015-2026 Annual Sales Trend of my country's Heavy-Duty Truck Industry (Unit: 10,000 Vehicles)
The manufacturing sector's prosperity also reflects changes in market demand. The manufacturing PMI was 49.2% in July and 49.8% in August, remaining below the 50% threshold separating expansion from contraction, indicating that overall market demand remains weak.
Furthermore, the advance purchase demand resulting from the AEBS regulation switch also impacted the August market. Previously, to complete registration, insurance, and operation before the regulation switch, many users released their purchase demand in advance, with some demand shifting from the second half of the year to the second quarter and July.
As this concentrated demand gradually subsided, the domestic heavy-duty truck terminal market entered a period of adjustment in August.
◆ Exports Maintain Growth, Providing Support for the Heavy-Duty Truck Market
Compared to the cooling of the domestic market, heavy-duty truck exports maintained a good growth trend. Currently, China's heavy-duty truck export market is still in the expansion stage, with markets in Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia continuing to release demand, bringing new growth opportunities to domestic heavy-duty truck companies.
Looking at August's performance, heavy-duty truck exports are expected to increase by approximately 35% year-on-year. Despite the traditional off-season in the domestic market, the export market maintained growth, providing significant support for overall heavy-duty truck sales. With the continued expansion of Chinese heavy-duty truck products in overseas markets, exports have become a crucial force influencing overall industry sales.
◆ New Energy Heavy-Duty Trucks Maintain Growth, Market Heat Slows Down
As one of the fastest-growing segments in the current heavy-duty truck market, new energy heavy-duty trucks continued to see year-on-year growth in August.
Since the second quarter of this year, driven by factors such as the replacement of National IV and National V emission standard trucks, the switch to AEBS regulations, and operational cost advantages, the new energy heavy-duty truck market has experienced rapid growth, with terminal sales in May and June exceeding 100% year-on-year growth. Entering August, as previously concentrated demand gradually subsided, coupled with the impact of the traditional off-season, the growth rate of the new energy heavy-duty truck market slowed down. Data shows that new energy heavy-duty truck terminal sales in August are expected to increase by approximately 35% year-on-year, a significant slowdown compared to the over 100% growth in May and June, and a month-on-month decrease of nearly 10%.
However, year-on-year performance shows that new energy heavy-duty trucks continue to grow, and the market fundamentals remain unchanged. After a period of concentrated demand release, the new energy heavy-duty truck market is gradually transitioning from rapid growth to a more rational adjustment phase.
◆ "Golden September and Silver October" Approaching, Market Expected to Gradually Recover
With September approaching, the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" sales season is about to begin. After the off-season adjustment in July and August, terminal demand in the heavy-duty truck market is expected to gradually recover, and the month-on-month performance of the new energy heavy-duty truck market is also expected to improve.
However, since the terminal sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks reached approximately 24,000 units in September last year, the base is significantly higher, so the year-on-year growth rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks in September this year may further slow down. Overall, the heavy-duty truck market experienced a temporary decline in August, but the industry's cumulative sales for the year still maintained rapid growth. Domestic market adjustments, continued export growth, and high growth in new energy vehicles remain the main characteristics of the current heavy-duty truck market.
